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NZDJPY-H4 - 2618 reversal holds; Seeing potential AB=CD towards structure
Traders,
Andre Porco is our MasterMind ratio guy. His screenshot shows that his 1.618 occurs much much sooner than mine.
I have used a computer-screen based Fib measuring device (yes, it measures any thing at any Big rate that appears on computer screens. It's kinda hard to use though, so I have not planned on sponsoring that product as of yet, unless Akil L. Stokes wants to try it himself before recommending it (Product can be found at PhiMatrix.com). In any case, I would like to find out where your 1.618 occurred at a true 1.618. I am prone to errors but using a screen-based measuring tool that confimrs my FXCM-MT4 Fib puts a guarantee I would otherwise not be able to have.
Also, I wanted to advance this chart from the "What has been" (with its Shark completions, yes two of them), followed by a "What is" (with the current 5-0 pattern completion which confirms a directional bias to the downside, to now "What can be", which is now looking towards the direction of this nascent trend.
Since this trend has to go somewhere, it is all too natural to look for structure and pattern confluence.
AB=CD and STRUCTURE:
If you recall, in one of my recent statement, I mentioned that patterns are NOT as important as pivots. I believe this was in a blog entry where I referred to Forex being fought like a trenches war, trenches being the pivot points where buyers and sellers war out prices, leaving clear levels of congestion and memory levels, so to speak.
Instead, patterns are the measures by which price move. I do not believe that price move between pivots because of a pattern needing to express itself, but that instead, price move between pivots based on the affinity for the price to seek higher or lower levels on the market place, but at paces that are expressed in multiple types of patterns.
For instance, I see traders swearing on the imminent completion of a Gartley, where B stands at a candle peak = 1.618 (but its body at 0.500), to see the Gartley pattern being taken over by a Bat. Why is that? First of all, I believe that while the peak may have been at a definable B for a Gartley, a consensus of other trades pushed the price and closed that time segment at 0.50. So, their pull was large enough to push price back down and create a force of expectation seeing a Bat instead of a Gartley, since a Bat is most appropriately expected to reach 0.886, compared to the Gartley at 0.786.
Another instance occurs multiple times with the Cypher, leading to a Shark. How about a Bat leading to a Crab, and even a perfect completion of a Gartley at o.786, still rising way past X to 1.618 for a Butterfly.
So, again, price are paced at the force of the market, where buyers and sellers will bring the price above and beyond the expectation of a classic patterns, only because the underlying market engine of balance between buyers and sellers is the true driver of price, not the pattern.
While this difference might be absurd for the hard-core technician and real to the economist (whose mindframe is to balance out all the forces acting between supply and demand), it still remains important to keep in mind that there is NOT such thing as a pattern failure, but a trading failure. A pattern failure would be a true statement IF and only IF the market acted in pace and solely through patterns. Instead, the market has fundamental lava, a mass of buyers and sellers, and rocks shaped in patterns. The price eruption that we see in price movement jumping like a cat from pivot to pivot is in essence an internal pressure gauge of market interest or disinterest in the underlying asset. So, when a pattern fails, one has to not turn against the phantom market maker thinking that he or she has been had, but that may be that failed trade was originally set up right onto the rails of an incoming train that sought to arrive at another station, beyond the trader's expectation.
So, in a way, make sure to look at your daily and 8-hour chart if you are considering trading 15 minute charts, because that counds you might ear laying your ear on the ground could be a pip-load of a freight train that could roll right over you.
Chou-chou. Be careful!
Best trading,